Lowering the crop projection, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has reduced the output to 362 lakh bales for the crop year October 2017-September 2018, down 5 lakh bales from the February estimate of 367 lakh bales
“The CAI has lowered its cotton crop estimate mainly due to the crop damage on account of severe pink bollworm infestation in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka and water scarcity in some States,” said Atul Ganatra, president, CAI, in a statement.
Projected balance sheet
“This lower production estimate of 5 lakh bales consists of 2 lakh bales each in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, while production in ‘other States’ is estimated to be down by 1 lakh bales,” Ganatra stated.
The projected balance sheet drawn by the CAI estimates the total cotton supply for the season at 412 lakh bales, which includes the opening stock of 30 lakh bales and the imports, which the CAI has retained at 20 lakh bales as in the previous month.
The domestic consumption is estimated at 330 lakh bales — higher by 10 lakh bales than estimated in February.
The CAI has also estimated an increase in exports for the season from 55 lakh bales to 60 lakh bales because of a surge in demand for Indian cotton and increase in ICE futures prices. New York ICE Futures quoted at 84.19 cents for July 2018 contract. Indian cotton prices hovered at ₹41,200 per candy .
The carry-over stock at the end of this season on September 30, 2018, is estimated to be 22 lakh bales which is lower by 20 lakh bales over the previous closing stock of 42 lakh bales.