The country is likely to witness a “normal” southwest monsoon, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said in its forecast today. However, the southern peninsula and major portions of northeast India are likely to witness “below normal” rainfall this season, it said in a statement.
“India is most likely to witness normal annual monsoon rains at 100 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA),” it said.
The monsoon is considered ‘normal’ if the average rainfall is between 96-104 per cent of LPA. Anything less than 90 per cent of LPA is termed a “deficient” monsoon, and 90-96 per cent of LPA is considered “below normal”.
There is only 20 per cent chance of above normal monsoon rains, 20 per cent chance of below normal rains and zero per cent chance of a drought, Skymet said.
June would record excess rainfall, July is likely to be normal and August below normal, it added.
Rainfall activity will pick up again in September.
The four-month monsoon season gives about 70 per cent of the country’s rainfall.